The Energy Industry Has Enough Pilots.

The energy industry likes pilots.

There are understandable reasons. New technologies need validation. Customers want evidence. Engineering teams want operational data. Investors want technical risk reduced. Governments frequently support demonstration projects.

The problem begins when pilots become a substitute for building a business.

Technical validation is not commercial validation

A successful pilot can prove that the system works, that the integration works, and that the expected technical output can be achieved.

It does not necessarily prove:

• —customers will pay enough
• —sales can be repeated
• —implementation economics work
• —procurement can scale
• —working capital is manageable
• —service can be delivered profitably
• —or financing is available

Those are different questions.

Define the commercial hypothesis before the pilot

Before approving a pilot, management should ask: what exactly are we trying to learn? If the answer is only technical, that may be insufficient.

A strong pilot should ideally test several commercial assumptions simultaneously.

• —Who is the economic buyer?
• —How long does approval take?
• —Which stakeholders influence the decision?
• —What implementation effort is required?
• —What does the customer consider valuable, and what are they actually willing to pay?
• —Which objections appear during procurement?
• —Which elements must be standardised before replication?

The second customer matters more than the first

The first customer can be exceptional. Perhaps there is a personal relationship. Perhaps the customer wants innovation visibility. Perhaps a subsidy changes the economics. Perhaps both sides invest disproportionate management attention.

That does not necessarily create a scalable model. The second, third and tenth customers tell you much more.

• —Can the proposition be repeated without extraordinary effort?
• —Can sales happen without the CEO personally being involved in every conversation?
• —Can delivery be standardised?
• —Can margins survive normal commercial conditions?

That is where an experiment begins becoming a company.

Ask what happens after success

My favourite pilot question is simple:

Assume this works perfectly. Then what?

Who buys the next one? From which budget? Through which sales process? At which margin? Delivered by whom? Financed how?

If these questions remain unanswered, the organisation may be running an excellent technical programme. But it is not yet building a scalable business.